Goals to meet the 2100 Global Warming Target after COP26: A Green Revolution

Keith Openshaw
Retired Forest Economist, USA
DOI – http://doi.org/10.37502/IJSMR.2022.5106

Abstract

Fossil fuels are the main contributor to global warming and add about 9.3GtC (34.2GtCO2) to the atmosphere each year. Deforestation adds an additional 1.4GtC (5.1GtCO2).

Population increase is a principal driver of deforestation. Tempering population increase is therefore essential for meeting the global warming target of the Paris Agreement by 2100. With more effective family planning programs, 167 million ha of forests, containing 17GtC, valued at an estimated $42.5 billion could be saved from conversion to subsistence agriculture. Improving agricultural productivity, especially in the subsistence sector, would avoid additional significant forest loss.

Fossil fuel consumption can at the same time be reduced in part through efficiency measures, and especially by greatly expanding the use of renewable energy. While renewable energy from water, wind and solar have a major role to play, biomass is currently the most important renewable fuel. Expanding its use requires improvements in intermediate and end-use efficiency. Increased use of biomass energy from sustainably managed sources could facilitate more investment in forests and increase the capture of carbon. A program to plant trees on 0.9 billion ha of land could capture more than 205GtC in wood and soils.

These measures would greatly assist in keeping the global temperature increase to 1.50C above the pre-industrial level, ensuring that the world remains habitable and environmentally sustainable.

Keywords. Deforestation, reforestation, renewable energy expansion, Paris Agreement, tempering population increase; improving agricultural productivity.

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